Iran Regime Collapse Probability Matrix

11-Pillar Structural Vulnerability Trajectory (2008 – April 2026)

CS Models (1, 2, 3)

The baseline, empirical fit (calibrated to phylosoph), and structural stress probabilities.

PI (Pressure Index)

Baseline systemic pressure rigorously aggregated from the 11 structural pillars.

IM (Multiplier)

Calculates cascading systemic collapse (elite, kinetic, economic, & periphery interactions).

Structural Pillars

The 11 individual foundation scores. All values mathematically mapped so higher = higher risk.